ASPO-5 Live

Tuesday, July 18, 2006

Luis de Sousa' Impressions

For the first time since 1997 I missed the climb to L’Alp d’Huez, and I’ll probably know the results only tomorrow by the papers. But that’s for a good reason; I’m at the ASPO 5! (the cycling loving folks will understand).

It’s quite awkward being among the big ‘Peak Oil’ names: Laherrere, Campbell, Hirsch, Aleklett, you name them, they’re all almost here. I’m overflowing with information.

My main feeling is that a Peak Oil date is converging to the 2010 – 2012 time frame: Laherrere, Campbell, Skebrowski, Koopelar are just a few of the people pointing in that direction. As for the midpoint, or the peak in the mathematical Hubbert Curve, it was passed last year. Deffeyes can consider himself an historian now.

Laherrere believes that the difficulty in bringing additional oil in to the market will trigger an economic recession, transforming the next decade in a bumpy plateau – a series of increasingly worst “demand destruction” periods. I share his view.

So Peak Oil is stopping being about studying the Peak date, but figuring out solutions for the depletion period. And we’ve a lot of different paths being proposed, from more technical solutions (like Nuclear) to “sustainability” ones (like Renewables and Permaculture) to more social ones like the Depletion Protocol.

So I just wish everyone out there trying to project a future without (or with less) oil to take a look at what’s going at Pisa these days – and by the way good luck!

P.S. - It’s quite nice to have faces now associated with the nicknames used at TOD!

All the best for your Post-Peak-Oil future,

Luis de Sousa (aka lads)